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If Vice President Kamala Harris had been to run for governor in California in 2026, she would have a serious benefit over the crowded discipline of candidates vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, new polling reveals.
The most recent ballot from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Research, co-sponsored by The Instances, discovered that if Harris enters California’s crowded 2026 gubernatorial race, almost half of voters can be very or considerably prone to assist her.
Harris would have stronger assist general from Democrats, who’ve an almost 2-1 voter registration benefit over Republicans. About 72% of Democrats mentioned they might be very possible or considerably prone to contemplate Harris for governor, in contrast with 8% of Republicans and 38% of voters with no occasion desire.
“Almost all voters on this state have an opinion of her, and that’s actually the large benefit that she brings to an early ballot,” mentioned Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Ballot. “Not one of the different candidates are as well-known to the voting public.”
Nonetheless, the ballot means that Californians may very well be much less supportive of Harris working for governor in contrast along with her run for president this yr. Forty-six p.c of possible voters had been considerably (13%) or very (33%) prone to assist her for governor in 2026, the ballot discovered. As of Tuesday, Harris had gained 59% of the presidential race votes counted in California.
The ballot is the primary to gauge how California feels about Harris working for governor. Harris has not mentioned publicly what she plans to do after President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20, and a Harris consultant didn’t reply to a request for remark.
Harris has a house in Brentwood and loved a profitable profession in California politics for almost twenty years as she rose from San Francisco district legal professional to California legal professional basic after which to the U.S. Senate. A number of years in the past, she opened a campaign account to boost cash to run for governor, however public filings present she shut it in 2018.
Though Harris has not signaled that she desires to run for governor, the thought has been floated by some Californians upset that she misplaced the presidential race.
Harris would be part of a discipline of greater than a dozen candidates who’ve both entered the race to succeed Newsom or are weighing whether or not to launch a marketing campaign. Newsom is serving his second time period and can’t run once more.
Separate from the ballot’s questions on Harris, California voters had been requested to decide on their first and second favorites from an extended checklist of candidates who’ve entered the governor’s race and potential candidates.
Voter opinions about Harris can’t be in contrast with these concerning the different candidates as a result of voters weren’t requested to select between them, DiCamillo mentioned. Together with her in a head-to-head matchup with different candidates felt untimely, DiCamillo mentioned, as a result of she was nonetheless working for president when the ballot was performed.
Greater than half of registered voters say they don’t have a desire among the many candidates. Amongst those that do, their favorites haven’t but entered the race.
U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), who has not mentioned whether or not she’s going to run, would lead the pack as the primary or second alternative of 13% of voters, the ballot discovered. Two Republicans mentioned to be weighing campaigns, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and state Sen. Brian Dahle, who ran in opposition to Newsom in 2022, had been the primary or second alternative of 12% and 11% of registered voters, respectively.
Porter, who’s leaving the Home of Representatives in January, has been within the mixture of potential gubernatorial candidates since she misplaced her bid for the U.S. Senate in March. When requested final weekend by Fox 11’s Elex Michaelson whether or not she’s going to run, she mentioned she is “still thinking.”
Two Democrats who’ve launched campaigns every have 7% assist: Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and former Los Angeles Mayor Antoino Villaraigosa. So does Well being and Human Providers Secretary Xavier Becerra, who has not mentioned whether or not he’ll run. Republican commentator Steve Hilton, additionally mentioned to be weighing a bid, can be the primary or second alternative of 6% of voters.
Some candidates already within the race, together with State Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, state Sen. Toni Atkins and former state Controller Betty Yee, had assist from fewer than 5% of registered voters.
The identical was true for a number of politicians who haven’t introduced campaigns, together with state Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta, who has mentioned he’s “seriously considering” working; developer Rick Caruso, who misplaced the Los Angeles mayor’s race in 2022; and Republican Lanhee Chen, who misplaced the election for state controller in 2022.
It’s an “spectacular checklist” of candidates, DiCamillo mentioned, however the giant share of California voters with no opinion about any of them (52%) underscores how little most voters know concerning the race — and what a bonus Harris would have due to her title recognition.
“Most voters in California don’t take note of what’s occurring in state politics,” DiCamillo mentioned. “That’s why you want enormous quantities of marketing campaign assets to make your self recognized to them.”
The ballot discovered that Porter can be an early chief among the many state’s registered Democrats, in addition to amongst Asian American, white and feminine voters. Having assist of ladies is a bonus, DiCamillo mentioned, as a result of the vast majority of registered Democrats in California are ladies.
Latino voters barely favor two Democrats — Villaraigosa and Becerra — in addition to Bianco. That Latinos are favoring each Republicans and Democrats, DiCamillo mentioned, mirrors the rightward shift that he tracked in polling about President-elect Donald Trump and U.S. Senate candidate Steve Garvey, each of whom did “higher amongst Latinos than we now have seen traditionally.”
“The Latino vote now appears extra in play than in previous elections,” DiCamillo mentioned.
The ballot was performed on-line in English and Spanish from Oct. 22 to 29 amongst 4,838 registered voters in California. The margin of error is about 2 proportion factors.
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