Next tropical weather threat is forming in the Caribbean. Will it move towards Florida’s Gulf Coast?

The final day of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Nov. 30, however as we close to that ending line, the Caribbean has different ideas in thoughts, with a possible tropical system brewing.  

The Nationwide Hurricane Heart said Wednesday afternoon that Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 has shaped within the western Caribbean. If it reaches tropical storm power, it will likely be named Sara. Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for elements of Honduras and Nicaragua. 

Hurricane hunters took off from Biloxi, Mississippi, at 12 p.m. ET Wednesday en route to analyze this space and decide the power and construction of the growing climate system. One other flight is scheduled for Thursday morning for extra monitoring. 

With the low strain system in place within the western Caribbean, circumstances had been favorable for the formation of a tropical system. Forecast fashions take within the present environmental elements together with historic knowledge to compute “spaghetti plots” of the place programs could monitor. Every mannequin makes use of totally different computations, which explains how the forecast monitor is an output of the consensus from these fashions.  

This technique’s power is decided based mostly on how a lot gas it has — elements akin to being in a positive setting over heat waters, low wind shear, no intercepting fronts — and the way lengthy it stays in these favorable circumstances. Regardless of its power, the forecast fashions have it lingering within the western Caribbean by way of the weekend earlier than turning to the north and into the Gulf of Mexico early subsequent week. 

After coming into the Gulf, the consensus of the forecast fashions has it making a right-hand flip and heading towards Florida by late subsequent week. 

So much can occur between now and subsequent week and circumstances can shortly change, however areas like Jamaica and the Cayman Islands must brace for heavy rains within the subsequent few days. Florida residents ought to proceed to watch the forecast as updates are available. 

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